Situation.
US-Taliban signed a Peace Deal, under which, US would withdraw its troops in 14 months to end the war in AFG. Trump has said that you can only hold someone’s hand so long.
Concern is, if US troops withdraw, it may lead to civil war or Taliban may capture power completely. Taliban is proxy of Pakistan, and the situation is not good for India. The goodwill India has acquired so long will not be of any help if Taliban comes to power.
Why US has pulled out?
US role is actually reducing in the region. They are no longer dependent on oil of middle east countries. There is also a amount of surety in USA against any future attack. USA has lost around 2500 troops so far, and so much of its resources. Even US citizens are in favor of pulling its troops out.
What has been signed is not peace deal, but US exit with eye on elections. And full implementation of deal also depends on election outcomes. It is not new for USA to pull out like this. They’ve done it before with South Vietnam and with Kurds in Syria.
India’s options.
Delay American departure as long as possible to ensure stability of the region. Further, we cannot say that new Taliban will operate the same was as old Taliban. We should try to initiate dialogue with Taliban. So that whosoever comes to power, India’s developmental assistance continues.
India should also try to encourage nationalism in AFG. This will reduce their dependence on Pakistan. Economically Pakistan is much weaker at present, and India, much stronger.
